Main contribution
'Math on Trial' (2013) is the canonical popular reference on mathematical fallacies in criminal trials. Four catalogued fallacies apply directly to the Letby chart.
May 2026: Thirlwall Inquiry report delayed to at least September 2026 · six-baby inquests relisted to 2027 · CCRC review active · Shoo Lee Panel: no medical evidence of deliberate harm.
Conflict-map · Post-conviction statistical experts
Mathematician; 'Math on Trial' author
'Math on Trial' (2013) is the canonical popular reference on mathematical fallacies in criminal trials. Four catalogued fallacies apply directly to the Letby chart.
The chart exemplifies multiple recognised mathematical fallacies in criminal-trial evidence.
Cross-reference on the main experts conflict-map page.
This page is the conflict-map view (role in the Letby case + position on disputed evidence). For the full biographical reference — background, career, publications and public commentary — read the dedicated biography.
Post-conviction statistical experts.
Mathematical statistics; Lucia de Berk lead
Main contribution: Led the statistical critique that overturned Lucia de Berk's conviction. Public author of the statistical critique of the Letby shift-rota chart since 2023.
Key claim: The shift-rota chart is a textbook example of selection bias (the Texas sharpshooter fallacy).
Related evidence
Bayesian networks in legal evidence
Main contribution: Sustained Bayesian-network analysis of the Letby evidence. The most detailed publicly available Bayesian critique.
Key claim: Posterior probability of guilt on the trial evidence does not meet the criminal-law threshold.
Related evidence
Medical statistics (Warwick)
Main contribution: Operational analysis of the Letby shift-rota chart identifying four specific methodological failures.
Key claim: The chart conflates rate and count, uses the wrong denominator, has no null-hypothesis comparison, and pattern-matches against pre-selected events.
Related evidence