September 2026: Thirlwall Inquiry final report published (15 September) — a complete failure to protect babies, 17 recommendations, and no finding on the guilt of Lucy Letby or her convictions · CCRC review continues · inquests relisted to 2027 · Shoo Lee Panel: no medical evidence of deliberate harm.
Conflict-map · Post-conviction statistical experts
Bayesian networks in legal evidence
Professor of Risk Information Management at Queen Mary University of London and a director of the risk-modelling company Agena, Fenton writes the blog Probability and Risk with colleague Martin Neil. In an August 2023 post he raised concerns about the shift-rota chart used at trial, interviewed a researcher critical of the case, and linked it to concerns Richard Gill had also raised about how the case had been investigated.
Fenton's post referenced a video he had previously made on the general statistical fallacy of inferring guilt from a nurse's presence during a cluster of unusual events, made in relation to the earlier Ben Geen case, and said this issue was 'relevant' to the reasoning behind the Letby shift-chart. He did not present a full probability calculation for the Letby case in the post.
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Post-conviction statistical experts.