What the CCRC is, in one paragraph
The Criminal Cases Review Commission is an independent statutory body established by the Criminal Appeal Act 1995 for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. It reviews possible miscarriages of justice. Under section 13 of the Act, it can refer a conviction back to the Court of Appeal only if it concludes there is areal possibility the Court of Appeal would overturn the conviction. It does not decide guilt or innocence itself. It is not a retrial.
Stage 1: application received and screened
The CCRC receives an application either directly from the convicted person, from their legal representatives, or from third parties with authority. The application is logged, a case file is opened, and a preliminary screening decision is made on whether the application meets the statutory threshold to proceed to review. Very weak applications are rejected at this stage; the bar is not high. The Letby application was filed in October 2025 and passed preliminary screening by early February 2026 (per the CCRC chair’s public statement).
Stage 2: commissioner assignment
The CCRC assigns one or more of its statutory commissioners to the case. Commissioners are appointed by the Lord Chancellor and serve on a panel. For complex cases — and the Letby review is among the most complex in CCRC history — multiple commissioners may be assigned, and a case review manager is appointed to coordinate day-to-day investigation. The commissioner team is statutorily independent of the Court of Appeal, the CPS, and any part of government.
Stage 3: investigation phase
This is the longest phase. The CCRC uses its statutory powers (section 17 of the Criminal Appeal Act 1995) to obtain material from public bodies: police case papers, prosecution working files, expert-witness instructions, lab records, hospital records, and so on. It commissions its own independent expert reports where appropriate. It considers the applicant’s submitted material (in Letby, the 31+ independent expert reports filed with the October 2025 application). It may interview witnesses, review documents not available at trial, and test specific evidential claims.
For complex medical-evidence cases, this phase typically takes 12–24 months. The CCRC reports its median application-to-decision time is ~26 months for all cases combined; the minority of cases that go to referral take longer. The Post Office Horizon CCRC process took multiple years; the Donna Anthony case took approximately 18 months from application to referral.
Stage 4: provisional decision and response window
The CCRC’s commissioner team drafts a provisional decision document — either to refer or not to refer. Where the provisional decision is not to refer, it is sent to the applicant’s legal team for a response window. The applicant has typically 6–8 weeks (sometimes extended) to respond with further submissions and counter-arguments. The commissioner team then considers the response and issues a final decision.
Stage 5: final decision
Three possible final outcomes:
- Referral to the Court of Appeal. A Statement of Reasons is produced and the case is referred under section 9 (for convictions) or section 11 (for sentences). The Court of Appeal then hears the case on the newly-identified grounds; referral is not acquittal but it is the only route back to the Court of Appeal after direct-appeal refusal.
- Final refusal. The application is closed. The applicant may seek judicial review of the CCRC’s decision on administrative-law grounds (unlawfulness, irrationality, procedural unfairness). Judicial review of CCRC decisions is rare and success rate is low, but it exists as a legal avenue.
- Partial referral. For cases with multiple counts, the CCRC can refer some counts and not others. This is a real outcome possibility for a multi-count case like Letby; the CCRC could, for example, refer the insulin counts and the Child K count while not referring counts dependent on different expert evidence.
Base rates: what the CCRC actually does
- The CCRC refers approximately 3% of applications to the Court of Appeal. For complex medical-evidence cases the rate is somewhat higher but still a minority.
- Of cases referred, the Court of Appeal quashes the conviction in approximately 70%. Referral is predictive; the CCRC’s section 13 test filters for cases where the Court of Appeal is likely to act.
- Donna Anthony (2005), Sally Clark (2003), Stefan Kiszko (1992), Judith Ward (1992), and the Post Office sub-postmasters (2020-2024) are cases the CCRC referred that subsequently ended in quashed convictions on the expert-evidence or disclosure grounds most directly comparable to Letby.
The statutory independence principle
Dame Vera Baird KC’s 13 February 2026 public statement emphasised that the CCRC “does not make decisions on the basis of external pressure from anyone.” This is a statement of the statutory-independence principle built into the 1995 Act. Political pressure, media campaigns, and public attention cannot — as a matter of the statutory framework — drive the commissioners’ decision. That said, sustained public and broadsheet attention is not irrelevant: it affects the quality of material available (more expert engagement), it speeds disclosure from institutional bodies, and it is a material contextual factor for the Court of Appeal’s subsequent consideration.
What the Letby CCRC review is likely to consider
- The 31+ independent expert reports filed with the October 2025 application.
- The Shoo Lee International Expert Panel report (February 2025) and the Additional 10 Cases Report (June 2025).
- The Joint Expert Witness Insulin Report on Babies F and L (May 2025).
- The Thirlwall Inquiry evidence record (material brought into public view during 2024-2026 that was not available to the criminal trial).
- The paediatric-pathology re-readings and paediatric-radiology re-readings filed with the CCRC application.
- CPIA 1996 disclosure questions — material the defence argues should have been disclosed but was not.
- The January 2026 CPS decision not to pursue 11 additional charges on 9 further babies — a direct prosecutorial datapoint.
- Contemporaneous UK neonatal-outcome reference distributions (the base-rate context the 2023 trial did not fully surface).
Timeline expectations
The October 2025 application passed preliminary screening by early February 2026. If the CCRC review follows the median timeline for complex cases, a provisional decision could be expected in 2027. A final decision could follow 3–6 months later. These are estimates based on comparable cases (Anthony, Clark, Kiszko, Post Office), not CCRC-announced dates.