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September 2026: Thirlwall Inquiry final report published (15 September) — a complete failure to protect babies, 17 recommendations, and no finding on the guilt of Lucy Letby or her convictions · CCRC review continues · inquests relisted to 2027 · Shoo Lee Panel: no medical evidence of deliberate harm.

Lucy Letby Facts

Conflict-map · Post-conviction statistical experts

Prof. Richard Gill

Mathematical statistics; Lucia de Berk lead

StatisticsStatistical analysis2Expert/professional
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Main contribution

Emeritus professor of mathematical statistics at Leiden University, Gill led the statistical campaign that overturned the 2003 conviction of Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk. He co-authored the Royal Statistical Society's September 2022 working-party report on statistical pitfalls in investigating suspected medical murder, and runs a Dutch foundation, LucyLetby.org, dedicated to disseminating scientific critique of the case. Cheshire Police warned him during the trial that his blogging was in 'serious and flagrant' contempt of court.

Key claim

Gill told the Justice Gap in 2024: 'I think that the trial was unfair, the police investigation was unfair and, I also say, I'm certain Lucy Letby is innocent.' In a February 2025 blog post he set out a Bayesian argument, estimating prior odds of roughly 50 to 1 that a spike in neonatal deaths reflects poor hospital care rather than a serial killer.

Criticism

Cheshire Police wrote to Gill during the trial stating that his online commentary was in 'serious and flagrant' contempt of court and had come to the attention of the trial judge; Gill published the warning on his own website and said it had not changed his view of the case.

Sources

Related evidence

/evidence/shift-statistics

Conflict-map topics this expert participates in

Full biographical profile

Prof. Richard Gill — biography

Other experts on the same side

Post-conviction statistical experts.

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