May 2026: Thirlwall Inquiry report delayed to at least September 2026 · six-baby inquests relisted to 2027 · CCRC review active · Shoo Lee Panel: no medical evidence of deliberate harm.
Prof. Norman Fenton of Queen Mary University of London begins a sustained academic-blog series applying formal Bayesian network analysis to the Letby evidence. The series operationalises the Royal Statistical Society post-Sally-Clark framework into explicit prior/likelihood/posterior calculations. Conclusion: posterior probability of guilt does not meet the criminal-law beyond-reasonable-doubt threshold. The most detailed publicly-available Bayesian analysis of the Letby evidence.
Source: Prof. Norman Fenton probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com