Why it matters in the Letby case
Statistical critique of the Letby shift chart argues the chart suffers from this fallacy: events were defined by association with the suspect, and presence at those events was then offered as evidence of guilt.
May 2026: Thirlwall Inquiry report delayed to at least September 2026 · six-baby inquests relisted to 2027 · CCRC review active · Shoo Lee Panel: no medical evidence of deliberate harm.
Statistical explainer
The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is the error of drawing a target around a cluster of data points after the fact, then claiming the pattern is meaningful. In hospital cluster investigations it appears whenever the suspect is identified first and the events are then defined around their presence.
Statistical critique of the Letby shift chart argues the chart suffers from this fallacy: events were defined by association with the suspect, and presence at those events was then offered as evidence of guilt.
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