May 2026: Thirlwall Inquiry report delayed to at least September 2026 · six-baby inquests relisted to 2027 · CCRC review active · Shoo Lee Panel: no medical evidence of deliberate harm.
Statistical explainer
A shift-rota chart visualises which staff were present when a defined set of events occurred. As a piece of statistical reasoning, a shift chart only carries weight when the events are defined independently of the staff being investigated and when the comparator base rate is known.
A shift chart was central to the prosecution presentation. The Royal Statistical Society and named professors of statistics (Gill, Fenton, Hutton, Spiegelhalter, Green, O'Quigley) have published critiques arguing the chart suffers from selection bias, base-rate neglect and Texas-sharpshooter logic.
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