Why it matters in the Letby case
Named statisticians have argued the public framing of the Letby shift chart invited the same kind of inferential error the Court of Appeal warned against in Clark.
May 2026: Thirlwall Inquiry report delayed to at least September 2026 · six-baby inquests relisted to 2027 · CCRC review active · Shoo Lee Panel: no medical evidence of deliberate harm.
Statistical explainer
The prosecutor's fallacy is the error of confusing the probability of evidence given innocence with the probability of innocence given evidence. It was central to the Sally Clark statistical-evidence miscarriage of justice (1999 conviction quashed 2003).
Named statisticians have argued the public framing of the Letby shift chart invited the same kind of inferential error the Court of Appeal warned against in Clark.
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