Why it matters in the Letby case
The defence and post-conviction statistical critique argue the Letby case did not present the jury with the comparator base rate of nurse-shift presence at adverse events in similar units.
May 2026: Thirlwall Inquiry report delayed to at least September 2026 · six-baby inquests relisted to 2027 · CCRC review active · Shoo Lee Panel: no medical evidence of deliberate harm.
Statistical explainer
A base rate is the frequency of an event in the relevant comparator population. Without a base rate, 'she was there' has no inferential weight.
The defence and post-conviction statistical critique argue the Letby case did not present the jury with the comparator base rate of nurse-shift presence at adverse events in similar units.
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