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April 2026: Thirlwall Inquiry final report due after Easter · CCRC still reviewing 31+ independent expert reports · Shoo Lee Panel (Feb 2025): no medical evidence of deliberate harm.

Lucy Letby Facts

How the Clark / Cannings / de Berk / Anthony precedents apply operationally

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Prosecution claim

The Clark, Cannings, Anthony and de Berk miscarriage-of-justice cases concerned specific sets of facts different from the Letby case. The precedents are not controlling on Letby on their specific facts.

Counter-evidence

The precedents apply not on their specific facts but on the legal principles they established. The Royal Statistical Society's post-Clark framework (2001) is the canonical UK reference on statistical evidence in criminal trials — applicable to any statistical-evidence case, including the Letby shift-rota chart. The Cannings principle (2003) is the operative Court of Appeal test on disputed medical expert evidence — applicable to the Letby expert-disagreement record. The de Berk statistical critique framework (Dutch Supreme Court 2010) is internationally available analytical scaffolding — applied to Letby by Prof. Richard Gill himself. The Anthony CCRC-referral precedent (2005) establishes the procedural route the Letby application is following. Each of these precedents operates at the level of principle, not specific fact — which is how legal precedent works.

Precedents apply at the level of principle. The Cannings principle says a conviction on disputed medical expert evidence is unsafe. The Letby expert record is a record of disputed medical expert evidence. The principle therefore applies.

What the jury heard

The jury does not receive legal precedent; that is a matter for the judge's directions and for appellate review. The precedent-application question is therefore a CCRC / Court of Appeal question, not a jury question.

What the Panel says

The Panel addresses the medical-evidence content. The legal-precedent application is a separate layer that flows from the Panel's medical findings: if the medical evidence is disputed at the level the Panel documents, the Cannings principle is engaged.

What independent experts add

  • Clark established the RSS statistical framework.
  • Cannings established the disputed-medical-evidence principle.
  • Anthony established the CCRC-referral procedural route.
  • de Berk established the international statistical-critique framework (Gill).
  • Sally Clark's case drove the 2003 Attorney General's review of 297 similar convictions.
  • Together, the precedents form a framework for reviewing post-conviction expert-evidence cases.
  • The Letby October 2025 CCRC application operationalises this framework.

Further reading

Source: R v Clark Court of Appeal January 2003; R v Cannings Court of Appeal December 2003; Nederlandse Hoge Raad 2010 (de Berk); R v Anthony Court of Appeal April 2005