May 2026: Thirlwall Inquiry report delayed to at least September 2026 · six-baby inquests relisted to 2027 · CCRC review active · Shoo Lee Panel: no medical evidence of deliberate harm.
The shift chart shown to the jury plotted 25 events with Letby present at all 25, framed as proof of guilt.
Operational records for the Countess of Chester Hospital neonatal unit document deteriorations, collapses and unexpected events on shifts where Letby was not on duty across the 2015-2016 cluster period. These off-shift events were excluded from the chart shown to the jury, which was constructed by selecting events at which Letby was present and then plotting her presence as the inferred pattern. The Royal Statistical Society's reissued April 2026 statement names this Texas-sharpshooter selection effect specifically: when the same selection method is applied to any other nurse on the unit who works the equivalent volume of unsociable shifts, similar-looking charts can be produced. The statistically meaningful question — whether collapses are more likely on Letby's shifts than on equivalent shifts staffed by other nurses, with the full denominator — was never put to the jury.
Painting the target around the bullet hole. The chart was constructed by selecting events at which Letby was present, then using her presence as evidence of guilt. The full denominator — collapses on shifts where she was not on duty — was excluded.
The 25-event chart with Letby's row fully shaded. The Crown's opening invited the inference that coincidence was impossible. The off-shift events that would have changed the inference were not plotted.
The Panel did not opine on statistics directly but referenced the Royal Statistical Society's published warnings that selection effects vitiate any inference from the chart.