Interview With Prof. Richard Gill On Lucy Letby - Part 2

Professor Richard Gill, the statistician who overturned the wrongful conviction of Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk, continues his analysis of the Letby case. He describes a conversation with the dying insulin expert Vincent Marx, who expressed concern that an immunoassay was again being used as the centrepiece of a nurse murder trial. He explains why the shift chart required a hypothesis — specifically Letby's guilt — to be constructed, making it a textbook illustration of the Texas sharpshooter fallacy and circular causation: events were deemed suspicious partly because Letby was present, then her presence was cited as evidence of guilt. He is critical of Dr Bohin's peer review, arguing she cannot have done what she was instructed to do — provide alternative clinical explanations — because the Shoo Lee Panel's subsequent review shows no such alternatives were identified. He also recounts a conversation with a senior CPS official who told him statistics were deliberately excluded from the prosecution because they 'only confuse people'.

Last updated 2026-07-14

2 min read

Notable extracts

Short verbatim extracts from the video. Each quote is under 80 words and attributed to the speaker. Extracted under fair-dealing for review and news reporting (CDPA 1988 s.30).

Prof. Richard Gill

The statistics are misleading because it's not statistics, it's circular causation. Lucy's presence caused some events to be suspicious. That's all it is. It's the wrong way around.

On the logical structure of the shift chart evidence

Prof. Richard Gill

A CPS official told me, at a meeting in Cambridge: we're not using statistics in the Lucy Letby case. It only confuses people. That is an extraordinary thing to say about evidence that was in fact central to the trial.

On the CPS's admission that statistics were deliberately excluded

Prof. Richard Gill

Vincent Marx was dying. He was sleeping most of the time. But when I wrote to him with scientific questions about insulin, he lit up. And what he told me was that an immunoassay used as forensic proof was deeply wrong.

On his conversation with insulin forensics expert Vincent Marx shortly before Marx's death

Interview With Prof. Richard Gill On Lucy Letby - Part 2

Last updated 2026-07-14

2 min read

Notable extracts

Short verbatim extracts from the video. Each quote is under 80 words and attributed to the speaker. Extracted under fair-dealing for review and news reporting (CDPA 1988 s.30).

Prof. Richard Gill

The statistics are misleading because it's not statistics, it's circular causation. Lucy's presence caused some events to be suspicious. That's all it is. It's the wrong way around.

On the logical structure of the shift chart evidence

Prof. Richard Gill

A CPS official told me, at a meeting in Cambridge: we're not using statistics in the Lucy Letby case. It only confuses people. That is an extraordinary thing to say about evidence that was in fact central to the trial.

On the CPS's admission that statistics were deliberately excluded

Prof. Richard Gill

Vincent Marx was dying. He was sleeping most of the time. But when I wrote to him with scientific questions about insulin, he lit up. And what he told me was that an immunoassay used as forensic proof was deeply wrong.

On his conversation with insulin forensics expert Vincent Marx shortly before Marx's death

Interview With Prof. Richard Gill On Lucy Letby - Part 2

Notable extracts

Related on this site

Interview With Prof. Richard Gill On Lucy Letby - Part 2

Notable extracts

Related on this site