Interview with Prof. Richard Gill On Lucy Letby Case And More

Professor Richard Gill, emeritus professor of mathematical statistics at Leiden University and the statistician instrumental in overturning the wrongful conviction of Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk, explains the statistical flaws in the Letby prosecution and expresses cautious optimism about the Criminal Cases Review Commission process. He describes the shift rota chart as a textbook example of the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy — cherry-picking data after the fact to produce a compelling but spurious pattern. Gill is deeply concerned about the immunoassay insulin evidence, endorsing the work of Gwen Mork and Anna Milan as illustrative of how a cheap screening test was misused forensically. He draws an explicit comparison with the Ben Geen case and argues that British courts are systematically unprepared to evaluate contested forensic science. Gill calls for an independent medical investigation independent of the police, noting that investigators were operating above their competence level throughout.

Last updated 2026-07-14

2 min read

Notable extracts

Short verbatim extracts from the video. Each quote is under 80 words and attributed to the speaker. Extracted under fair-dealing for review and news reporting (CDPA 1988 s.30).

Prof. Richard Gill (Speaker 1)

The shift chart is a classic Texas Sharpshooter. You draw the target around the bullet holes after you have already fired. That is not statistics — that is storytelling dressed up as statistics.

On the statistical methodology of the prosecution's rota chart

Prof. Richard Gill (Speaker 1)

The immunoassay is what I would call a cheap and dirty test. It is perfectly adequate for screening in a clinical setting. It is completely inadequate as the sole basis for a murder conviction.

On the insulin immunoassay evidence

Prof. Richard Gill (Speaker 1)

What strikes me about this case, and about the Ben Geen case, is that the police were asked to do something they are not equipped to do. Investigating a statistical cluster of deaths in a hospital is not a police matter — it is a medical and scientific matter.

On the limits of police competence in investigating medical clusters

Interview with Prof. Richard Gill On Lucy Letby Case And More

Last updated 2026-07-14

2 min read

Notable extracts

Short verbatim extracts from the video. Each quote is under 80 words and attributed to the speaker. Extracted under fair-dealing for review and news reporting (CDPA 1988 s.30).

Prof. Richard Gill (Speaker 1)

The shift chart is a classic Texas Sharpshooter. You draw the target around the bullet holes after you have already fired. That is not statistics — that is storytelling dressed up as statistics.

On the statistical methodology of the prosecution's rota chart

Prof. Richard Gill (Speaker 1)

The immunoassay is what I would call a cheap and dirty test. It is perfectly adequate for screening in a clinical setting. It is completely inadequate as the sole basis for a murder conviction.

On the insulin immunoassay evidence

Prof. Richard Gill (Speaker 1)

What strikes me about this case, and about the Ben Geen case, is that the police were asked to do something they are not equipped to do. Investigating a statistical cluster of deaths in a hospital is not a police matter — it is a medical and scientific matter.

On the limits of police competence in investigating medical clusters

Interview with Prof. Richard Gill On Lucy Letby Case And More

Notable extracts

Related on this site

Interview with Prof. Richard Gill On Lucy Letby Case And More

Notable extracts

Related on this site